Ever since the primary season was wrapped up in June (well, at least for most of us), the new hot topic has been the veepstakes.  It's mostly a parlor game, but an admittedly fun one for us political junkies.  We get to look at maps, polls, and demographics, while scanning the news to find out who is appearing where with whom, and who says what about whatever. It's our summertime Kremlinogy. Good stuff.

This season, a lot has been written about if Hillary would be on the ticket, and, if so, what impact she would have on Obama's prospects in November. Now that it's looking like she probably won't be on the ticket, a major topic has been what would happen if Obama picked another woman.

According to many here, including a couple front pagers, Obama would be a fool to pick any other woman besides Hillary.  Apparently, McCaskill, Sebelius and Napolitano have their own glass ceiling to crack, and it's firmly under Hillary's feet.  To me, this is an odd kind of sexism that reduces all potential female veeps to a single demographic: their gender. Forget that Sebelius is a two term progressive executive from a red state; she's a woman. Forget that McCaskill was an early supporter from a swing state; she's a woman.

I get the argument that Clinton was the only veep prospect that won 17 million votes, but that's an argument that could be used against potential veeps of either gender.  When applied only against the female prospects, the argument becomes sexist. This argument hasn't come up near as consistently (or predictably) when the names of male candidates such as Bayh or Biden come up.

Some say that for Obama to pick a female candidate would be tokenism and an insult to women.  I've read that if Sebelius (the most often mentioned potential female running mate) is picked, this will be a turn-off to women, and it will hurt Obama's chances among female voters.  Guess what?  Not so much.  Like the mythological problem Obama had with Latino voters, like the mythological problem Obama has with "working class whites", this canard is just a tall tale spun by a small group of diehard Clinton supporters.  

According to a new poll out, 29% of women voters would be more likely to vote for Obama if he picked a female running mate.  More interestingly, 47% of women who voted for Hillary would be more likely to vote for Obama if he picked a female running mate, while only 4% would be less likely. Turns out that it's just a disproportionately vocal 4% that we've been hearing from around here (and at goofy sites like Alegre's Corner and Hillaryis44).  Turns out that their pretense that they are speaking for all women is just that: pretense.

The article in full here:

AMERICAN WOMEN NO LONGER SEE HRC AS FIRST WOMAN PREZ.

On the heels of fresh coverage claiming women and feminists remain bitter about Hillary Clinton's defeat, here's a bipartisan poll that offers some real numbers. Sixty-nine percent of American women do believe Hillary was a trailblazer for other female politicians, but their hopes for the future of women in politics aren't pinned on her shoulders -- less than one-third now believe she will be the first woman president. Optimistically, though, about half of the women surveyed believe the U.S. will have a female president by 2016. What that suggests is that many women would be thrilled by the pick of any woman as a vice presidential nominee.

Here are some other takeaways from the poll, conducted by Republican Kellyanne Conway and Democrat Celinda Lake:

       * Obama would benefit twice as much as McCain from offering the second slot to a woman (29% more likely to support Obama if he picks a woman vs. 15% who would be more likely to support McCain).
        * Forty-seven percent of Hillary Clinton's primary voters said they'd be more likely to vote for Obama if he chose a woman running mate, and 4% said less likely. This is the exact breakdown of current Obama supporters overall.
        * Obama also holds an advantage among Independent women, who favor him by a twelve point margin (42% for Obama to 30% for McCain). However, one out of five Independents are still undecided.
        * Despite all the talk about sexism in the presidential campaign, the majority of women voters laid the blame for Hillary's loss squarely on her and her strategists' shoulders; they largely reject gender as a cause of her demise. Thirty-four percent believe she lost "because of the kind of campaign she ran"; 31% said because of "who she is and what she stands for"; and 21% said "because she is a woman."

--Dana Goldstein